So that morning, when Navarro was scheduled to meet with economic adviser Kevin Hassett in a different part of the White House, Bessent and Lutnick made their move, according to multiple people familiar with the intervention.
They rushed to the Oval Office to see Trump and propose a pause on some of the tariffs—without Navarro there to argue or push back. They knew they had a tight window. The meeting with Bessent and Lutnick wasn’t on Trump’s schedule.
The two men convinced Trump of the strategy to pause some of the tariffs and to announce it immediately to calm the markets. They stayed until Trump tapped out a Truth Social post, which surprised Navarro, according to one of the people familiar with the episode. Bessent and press secretary Karoline Leavitt almost immediately went to the cameras outside the White House to make a public announcement.
“We needed everyone singing from the same song sheet,” a person familiar with the matter said.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariff-pause-navarro-bessent-lutnick-b9e864fb
Trump, an avid consumer of cable news, said that he watched Dimon’s interview Wednesday morning with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business. During the interview, Dimon said a recession was a “likely outcome” of the new tariff program, but also defended the idea of some tariffs as a way to improve trade. He urged the president to give Bessent time to make deals. “I’m taking a calm view, but it could get worse,” Dimon said.
Dimon hasn’t had a substantive conversation with Trump for years, people familiar with the matter said. While his appearance on the Fox Business show had been in place for some time, Dimon knew that Trump and his inner circle often watched Fox and that his message would likely get through to them, one of the people said.
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved.
The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.
The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations.
It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce.
If this draft were accepted, Trump’s demands would amount to a higher share of Ukrainian GDP than reparations imposed on Germany at the Versailles Treaty, later whittled down at the London Conference in 1921, and by the Dawes Plan in 1924. At the same time, he seems willing to let Russia off the hook entirely.
Ukraine cannot possibly meet his $500bn demand in any meaningful timeframe, leaving aside the larger matter of whether it is honourable to treat a victim nation in this fashion after it has held the battle line for the liberal democracies at enormous sacrifice for three years.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/17/revealed-trump-confidential-plan-ukraine-stranglehold/
Posted: Dec 17, 2024 7:54 AM PST | Last Updated: December 17, 2024.
Newly sworn-in Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, flanked by a handful of cabinet colleagues, provided more details Tuesday about how the government plans to spend $1.3 billion to secure the Canada-U.S. border and allay U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's concerns about irregular migrants and drugs.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/border-plan-leblanc-trump-1.7412456
Trump Blinks on North American Tariffs
...
Later Monday, Mr. Trump paused his tariffs against Canada as well after a phone call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada is also deploying more law enforcement to the U.S. border and will appoint a “Fentanyl Czar,” among other enforcement promises.
If the North American leaders need to cheer about a minor deal so they all claim victory, that’s better for everyone. The need is especially important for Mr. Trump given how much he has boasted that his tariffs are a fool-proof diplomatic weapon against friend or foe. Mr. Trump can’t afford to look like the guy who lost. Ms. Sheinbaum in particular seems to recognize this, and so far she’s playing her Trump cards with skill.
None of this means the tariffs are some genius power play, as the Trump media chorus is boasting. The 25% border tax could return in a month if Mr. Trump is in the wrong mood, or if he doesn’t like something the foreign leaders have said or done. It also isn’t clear what Mr. Trump really wants his tariffs to achieve. Are they about reducing the flow of fentanyl, or is his real goal to rewrite the North American trade deal he signed in his first term? If it’s the latter, there’s more political volatility ahead.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-claudia-sheinbaum-justin-trudeau-concessions-trade-border-d5bbed97
“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately,” Trump said. “And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over.”
...
Those comments come ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Jan. 28-29, where interest rate decisions will be made. Markets are pricing in an almost 0% chance that the Fed will lower interest rates at its next meeting, per the CME Group data.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/24/us-treasury-yields-investors-consider-trumps-latest-comments-.html
Так вот один из водителей после выборов. Он рассказал, что стоял в очереди чтобы проголосовать четыре часа под дождем.
|| Трамп вернет цены, которые были четыре года назад. И Илон Маск и Рама... (как его зовут?) почистят government.
https://yakov-a-jerkov.dreamwidth.org/2271682.html
Индекс РТС вернулся на уровень сентября 2005 и кризиса 2009, за 20 лет долларовая доходность без учета дивидендов равна нулю.
https://t.me/spydell_finance/6039
While nearly every other industry has become more productive since 1968, productivity in home-building — the amount of work done by one worker in one hour, essentially — has declined by half. The country is barely building enough to maintain the status quo, which is some four million units short of need, according to Freddie Mac.
The barriers to building housing fast... weren’t technological, but institutional.
On the other hand, if business cycles are caused by unanticipated shifts in the entire pattern of tastes and technologies across sectors, we might call that uncertainty noise. I believe that these shifts are significant for the economy as a whole because they do not cancel in any meaningful sense. The number of sectors in which there is a match between tastes and technology varies a lot over time.
When it is high, we have an expansion. When it is low, we have a recession.
...the diversity in a more complex economy means that a single crop failure or demand shock cannot have such a devastating effect; but on the other hand, the specialization in a more complex economy means that when there is a mismatch between tastes and technology, it is costly to move skills and machines between sectors to correct the mismatch.
...
Unanticipated shifts in tastes and technology within and across sectors is what we call information in discussing financial markets.
Noise. Fisher Black, 1986.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04513.x
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04513.x
Рынок венчурных инвестиций в РФ в 2023 году продолжил сжиматься, его объем составил $118,2 млн — это падение более чем в десять раз в сравнении с 2022 годом ($1,252 млрд), до исторического минимума за семь лет.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6552547
— А дальше осенью 2024 года нас ждет серьезная развилка. Или действительно военные действия закончатся либо будут заморожены — и тогда можно будет сократить расходы в 2025–2026 годах, как и запланировано, либо придется повышать налоги.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6494099
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeasmymeasure
