A Maria Antoinette moment
Jan. 24th, 2019 02:07 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsWilbur Ross, a billionaire and the current Commerce Secretary, doesn't understand why federal workers who don't get paid can't get a loan from a bank.
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He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-24 11:43 pm (UTC)So he's technically correct, even though on surface he might appear insensitive.
Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 12:23 am (UTC)Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 12:34 am (UTC)Even for mortgages, employment verification is often done throug databases like Talx, not by calling employers. Income verification is done by pulling last year's tax returns from the IRS.
Most likely my hypothetical worker does not have a credit card with an overdue payment. You can fact check me by looking up credit card delinquency rates, banks report that to ABA.
Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 12:46 am (UTC)Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 12:48 am (UTC)Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 12:58 am (UTC)Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 01:05 am (UTC)I see 2.74% instead.
Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 01:25 am (UTC)Here's a better source. Marginal delinquencies tend to go up in Q1 and they've been already trending up lately.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLOBS
Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 02:37 am (UTC)This also includes delinquencies up to 180 days past due. Normally no transactions are authorized beyond 60 DPD, so only maybe a third of that is relevant to our discussion. The other two thirds have been rolling through the delinquency buckets towards the default way before government shutdown started.
Also this number includes all credit card customers, employed and unemployed. Unemployment is the most powerful predictor of credit risk, hence delinquency rate among employed government workers should be lower than average.
Re: He's not wrong
Date: 2019-01-25 02:51 am (UTC)